Q3 FY21 PDF UPDATE
It gives me great pleasure to write to you the maiden quarterly update on our portfolio.
With a large degree of uncertainty regarding the Covid19 Pandemic behind us, the Indian growth story seems brighter than ever for equity Investors in the coming decade.
Being the maiden quarterly update I have taken the liberty to dive into some macro economic factors which will continue driving growth for India in the coming years, followed by an update on our existing holdings.
Several organisations such as The IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development) have pegged India’s growth rate at 12%+ in FY22, making it the world's fastest growing large economy.
At Prosperity we firmly believe that an increase in global dependence on India with respect to manufacturing output, vast room for growth in per capita income, heavy reliance on Indian IT firms to fast track digitisation, and a large working population with a young median age of 28 years, would act as key drivers of growth for the country in the coming future.
A comparison of India with its global peers is depicted in the graphs below for the ease of understanding.
*Existence of a large gap in the GDP of the first two nations as against the bottom three symbolises opportunity. India with the fastest growing GDP is well positioned to close in on this gap. An increase in GDP augurs well for equity Investors by bringing down the relative valuation of the Indian stock market globally thus continuing to make it an attractive destination for foreign investors.
*India has one of the youngest working populations in the world, ready to contribute to the growth of the nation for the next couple of decades.
*Despite being the 5th largest economy, the average income of an Indian is currently less than 2 lakh rupees per annum. With rising wages, increase in skilled labour and more Indians opting to pursue entrepreneurship, India is poised for a strong growth in disposable income. This would fuel a robust consumption led growth of goods and services sold within the country.
* Indian exports satisfy a very small fraction of the global demand. A mere 10% shift in export volume from China to India would result in a 100% growth of the country’s export market. With rising labour costs, strict pollution control norms and the ongoing trade war between the US and China, India can hope to benefit from increased exports in the future. Additionally the performance linked incentive scheme launched by the government will also provide tailwinds to the Indian manufacturers.
With respect to our portfolio, we have delivered a robust index beating performance this quarter with several of our companies demonstrating a strong growth despite the ongoing pandemic. This has translated to double digit returns for investors who have invested in Prosperity Discovery Fund within a span of a few months.
We have had some exceptional winners this quarter delivering 100%+ returns in several investor portfolios. One of them is our Chennai based 1.25 billion dollar IT company that specialises in providing various software platforms to banks across the world. The company has been able to successfully monetise its investments in platform building and R&D on which it had spent a significant portion of its income over the last few years. The surge in profits owing to the successful monetisation have driven up stock prices providing handsome returns to investors. We expect a steady stream of growth in revenues and profits to continue for this company in the future given the high switching costs involved for banks.
Another star performer has been our Solapur based Aliphatic amine manufacturer. The company operates on an import substitution model by manufacturing high margin products that are heavily imported into India. It continues to enjoy tailwinds as strict environmental protocols in China have resulted in the shut down of various chemical manufacturing capacities. The PLI scheme launched by the government is further expected to boost the company’s profits in the coming quarters.
We have several exciting developments taking place in many of our other holdings.
The management of the largest position in our portfolio, which is the holding company of a small finance bank has expressed their desire to operate as a single entity and do away with the holding company structure. This, we believe, will unlock great value for the shareholders of the holding company as it trades at a 52% discount to its underlying assets.
Our key Pharma holding which is a 100-year old Gujarat-based conglomerate has planned to further invest INR 1000 crores in expanding their presence in niche segments like Ophthalmics and Injectables. This would further propel the company in its quest to achieve a top line US$1 billion in the coming few years.
The Aroma chemicals manufacturer that we hold is at an inflection point with a multitude of ongoing investments ranging from INR 350 - 400 crores. The company has very high barriers to entry in terms of technological know how required and the high degree of capital intensiveness. The fresh investments are expected to boost the revenue and margins of the company over the next couple of years.
Our Vadodara based chemical manufacturer is a market leader in intermediates such as sodium nitrite, sodium nitrate, nitro toluene and fuel additives. The company has also started reaping returns from its mega capex of INR 1,700 Crs done to set up India's largest and most technologically advanced phenol and acetone plant. The company has further planned to invest around INR 950-1,000 crore in setting up plants to manufacture upstream and down stream products.
One of our key holdings is also a Gurugram based basmati rice producer which has the largest share of the United States market for basmati rice. The company also has a significant presence in India, Australia, New Zealand and Europe. It has recently also commissioned a plant in Netherlands which has started contributing to its profits. The company's bottom line post tax has grown from 72 crores in 2015 to 272 crores in last 12 months. The company has also launched several other products such as rice based snacks, saute sauces, ready to eat par boiled rice etc. We believe that the transition in the perception of the company from a commodity rice manufacturer to a branded FMCG Player will unlock significant value for investors in the coming future.
We have actively worked on portfolio diversification and asset allocation across market capitalisations to minimise risk and combat market volatility. We are also happy to inform our investors that none of our stocks trade below a 10% drawdown in our 15-20 company portfolio, as on date.
Once again, I thank you for your trust, and hope to continue a long and fulfilling relationship in the years to come.
MD, Prosperity Wealth Management